Saturday, March 19, 2011

Shoaib Akhtar's career of hits and misses


A career of hits and misses

Shoaib Akhtar's career stats are impressive in both forms of the game, but what's not so great is how frequently he wasn't available for Pakistan
S Rajesh
March 18, 2011
When he was good he was outstanding,
 but Shoaib Akhtar missed more than
50% of the Tests and ODIs that Pakistan played in his 13-year career



A tally of 178 wickets in 46 Test matches is a good reason to say that Shoaib Akhtar's impact on his team cannot be measured by statistics alone. It's true that the numbers aren't bad at all - he also took 241 ODI wickets, and his averages in both forms are the fourth-best for any Pakistan bowler who took more than 150 wickets, while his Test strike rate of 45.7 is second only to Waqar Younis' 43.4. Yet there remains a feeling that Shoaib could have been much more than he eventually was, and that he should have taken many more wickets, and impacted a lot more matches, than he did.
Shoaib's international career stretched more than 13 years, which means he averaged 3.54 Tests and 12.54 ODIs per year. Allowing five days per Test, he played, on an average, about 30 days of international cricket per year. (And if you feel extremely generous, add a day per year for the 15 Twenty20 internationals.) Wasim Akram, on the other hand, averaged about 49 days of international cricket a year over 18 years.
From the beginning of his career Shoaib's ability was never in doubt, but he seldom strung together a set of top-class performances. His first five-for came in only his third Test: against South Africa in Durban, Shoaib took 5 for 43 in an exciting win, with none of the fielders contributing in any of his wickets - four, including Jacques Kallis, were bowled, and one was lbw. That trend was to continue through most of his career, with 99 out of 178 victims either bowled or lbw, but in his next five Tests he took only 10 wickets, before stunning Eden Gardens and the whole of India with incredible swinging yorkers at high speed that Rahul Dravid and Sachin Tendulkar couldn't keep out. His match haul of 8 for 118 was instrumental in Pakistan's 46-run win, but again, it failed to spark a sustained run of brilliance, as he managed only 20 wickets in his next seven Tests. In his first four years in Test cricket, Shoaib averaged less than three wickets per Test, and more than 36 runs per wicket.
The change came in 2002, and the next two years turned out to be the greatest of his Test career. In only 13 Tests he took 72 wickets, striking once every 30 deliveries. He blew away West Indies in Sharjah but saved his best for Australia and New Zealand. In Colombo against Australia, he was more than a handful for some of the best batsmen of the time, blowing away Ricky Ponting, the Waugh brothers and Adam Gilchrist in a spell that remains one of the best ever seen in Test cricket. A few months before that Colombo blitz, he had destroyed New Zealand's line-up in Lahore, taking 6 for 11 in 8.2 overs, which remain his best figures in Test cricket, and he finished 2003 with match figures of 11 for 78 in the Boxing Day Test in Wellington. Thankfully for New Zealand's batsmen, those were the only two Tests he played against them - his career averageversus New Zealand is 5.23. All three of his Man-of-the-Match displays came during this two-year period, as did his longest stretch of consecutive Tests, when he played seven in a row between January and October 2002 (which is only 146 short of the world record).
From 2004 onwards Shoaib played only 17 Tests, missing matches for reasons too varied to be listed here. He had a few memorable performances but never reached the heights he did in 2002 and 2003. (Click here for Shoaib's career summary in Tests.)
Shoaib Akhtar's Test career
PeriodTestsWicketsAverageStrike rate5WI/ 10WM
Till Dec 2001164636.4564.12/ 0
Jan 2002 to Dec 2003137215.0830.46/ 2
Jan 2004 onwards176030.1850.04/ 0
Career4617825.6945.712/ 2
Shoaib's tally of 178 Test wickets is the eighth-highest for Pakistan, and only three of those bowlers have a better average.
Best Pakistan bowlers in Tests (Qual: 150 wickets)
BowlerTestsWicketsAverageStrike rate5WI/ 10WM
Imran Khan8836222.8153.723/ 6
Waqar Younis8737323.5643.422/ 5
Wasim Akram10441423.6254.625/ 5
Shoaib Akhtar4617825.6945.712/ 2
Iqbal Qasim5017128.1176.18/ 2
Saqlain Mushtaq4920829.8367.613/ 3
Shoaib's stats are admittedly excellent, but the problem with him was Pakistan could never be sure when he was fit and available to play. Since the beginning of his Test career on November 29, 1997, Pakistan have played 115 Tests, of which Shoaib played only 46. Pakistan's results in the Tests he played in were significantly better than when he didn't - the win-loss ratio was 1.25 when he played, and 0.71 when he was out of the team.
Pakistan with and without Shoaib in Tests since Nov 29, 1997
 TestsWon/ lostWicketsAverageStrike rate
With Shoaib4620/ 1670233.6362.1
Without Shoaib6920/ 28103834.7067.4
However, the number of Tests he missed meant he could never form a meaningful combination with another fast bowler. Wasim Akram and Waqar Younis played 61 Tests together, which is more than the total number of matches Shoaib played. The most Tests another fast bowler played with him was 20, by Mohammad Sami (though it's arguable what kind of support Shoaib got from him). Waqar played 19, while Abdul Razzaq, who was hardly a strike bowler, played 17.
The two other fast bowlers with whom Shoaib could have formed a lethal on-field combination are Umar Gul and Mohammad Asif, but Asif ended up playing only four Tests with Shoaib, and Gul managed just three.
Other Pakistan bowlers in the 46 Tests that Shoaib played
BowlerTestsWicketsAverageStrike rate5WI/ 10WM
Danish Kaneria259337.1171.24/ 0
Saqlain Mushtaq167125.6053.94/ 1
Waqar Younis196925.4644.02/ 1
Mohammad Sami204454.6392.40/ 0
Abdul Razzaq173436.2964.90/ 0
Even in the matches that Shoaib played, there wasn't always a guarantee that he would last the duration: in the 46 Tests he played, Shoaib bowled only 8143 deliveries, sometimes because of his fitness worries mid-match, and sometimes because captains didn't want to risk too many overs from him. Only three times in his career did he bowl more than 30 overs in an innings, while the only instance he bowled more than 50 in a match was against Zimbabwe in Bulawayo in 1998.
Over his career, Shoaib averaged 177 balls per match, which is the second-lowest among fast bowlers with at least 150 Test wickets. The only one lower than him is Kallis, who obviously does a lot more in the South African team than just bowl.
Least balls per match by fast bowlers in Tests (Qual: 150 wickets)
BowlerTestsBalls bowledWicketsAverageBalls per match
Jacques Kallis14518,33727032.01126.46
Shoaib Akhtar46814317825.69177.02
Waqar Younis8716,22437323.56186.48
Chris Cairns6211,69821829.40188.68
Andrew Flintoff7914,95122632.78189.25
Keith Miller5510,46117022.97190.20
Bob Willis9017,35732525.20192.86
Ian Bishop43840716124.27195.51
As an ODI bowler, Shoaib's biggest asset was his strike rate. In a format which places a premium on economy, he pegged teams back with his ability to take wickets. Like in Tests, he played less than 50% of Pakistan's ODIs since his debut, but unlike the Test stats, his absence didn't impact the team's results adversely in ODIs. Of the 158 games he played for Pakistan, the team won 84 and lost 72; in the 188 matcheshe didn't play, Pakistan won 110 and lost 73.
Another difference between his Test and ODI numbers is the way he began his ODI career. He struggled for consistency in Tests, but in ODIs he was among the wickets straightaway, getting two or more in nine of his first 15 ODIs. He'd played only 16 ODIs going into the 1999 World Cup, but he handled the pressure well, taking 16 wickets in 10 games, including his first Man-of-the-Match award in the semi-finals against his favourite opponents, New Zealand, for a haul of 3 for 55.
Like in Tests, his best ODI phase too was till the end of 2003. He was positively devastating in some matches during this period, especially against New Zealand: over a 15-month period he took 5 for 19 and 6 for 16 against them, which remained two of his best ODI performances.
Shoaib in ODIs
PeriodODIsWicketsAverageEcon rateStrike rate
Till Dec 20039515521.414.5128.4
Jan 2004 onwards689230.975.0936.4
Career16324724.974.7631.4
Despite the number of games he missed, Shoaib still finishes as Pakistan's sixth-highest wicket-taker in ODIs, and fourth in terms of averages among Pakistan bowlers who've taken at least 150 wickets.
Top Pakistan bowlers in ODIs (Qual: 150 wickets)
BowlerODIsWicketsAverageEconomy rateStrike rate
Saqlain Mushtaq16928821.784.2930.4
Wasim Akram35650223.523.8936.2
Waqar Younis26241623.844.6830.5
Shoaib Akhtar15824124.704.7531.1
Imran Khan17518226.613.8940.9
During his pomp Shoaib was one of the best ODI bowlers going around, especially in terms of his wicket-taking ability. Till the end of 2003 he'd taken 155 wickets in 95 games, with an average and strike rate that were among the best. Only Muttiah Muralitharan and McGrath had a better average than Shoaib's 21.41, while Brett Lee was the only one with a better strike rate.
Best averages in ODIs between Mar 28, 1998 and Dec 31, 2003 (Qual: 100 wickets)
BowlerODIsWicketsAverageEcon rateStrike rate
Muttiah Muralitharan13923418.823.5032.1
Glenn McGrath11419519.593.8530.5
Shoaib Akhtar9515521.414.5128.4
Brett Lee7313721.434.6927.4
Allan Donald6510322.494.3031.3
Shaun Pollock15521722.553.6736.8
Makhaya Ntini8413222.714.2332.1
Saqlain Mushtaq9013324.894.2834.8
When Shoaib took wickets, Pakistan usually won. Of his 247 wickets, 154 came in victories, and in those 85 games Shoaib struck every 25.7 deliveries, which is the second-best among those with 150 wickets, next only to Saqlain. In fact, Shoaib is one of only five bowlers in the history of ODI cricket to take more than 150 wickets at an average of less than 25 and a strike rate of below 32 balls per wicket. All these are excellent stats, but with more commitment and a better attitude, his numbers would have been even more impressive.
S Rajesh is stats editor of Cricinfo

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